Military Transition Strategies

This paper focus on Afghanistan, a country in the midst of an ongoing insurgency rather than being in a ‘nation building’ phase, something which is demonstrated by the casualty rate of security personnel and civilians alike. In the context of the project, Afghanistan was selected as a case study because, compared to the other two case studies, it has had a long fight against insurgency and terrorism which has not yet led to the creation of a coherent counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism strategy. The paper looks at the country in three phases: prior to the US-led invasion in 2001, post -2001 and the transition/exit phase during which the country has gone from fighting an insurgency war to a counter-terrorism one. The paper ends by analysing whether (i) the objectives of the mission were met, (ii) if there was a clear strategy of transition, and finally (iii) how the transition in the country was managed and to what extent it can be defined successful.

The paper on Libya aims to analyse the military intervention in Libya, five years since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi. In the context of this research project, Libya forms an interesting case study as it offers the possibility to evaluate a so-called ‘light footprint’ military intervention which is different from the approaches adopted both in Afghanistan and Mali. As we know now, the development of the country post-Gaddafi has defied expectations and has plunged the country into chaos and instability, allowing the so called ‘Islamic State’ to establish and strengthen its local foothold. The paper looks at the history and tribal composition of the country after which it delves into the decision-making process in some of the countries involved in NATO’s Operation Unified Protector under UNSCR 1973 (2011) and continues by assessing the transition phase and the complexities which have arisen following the fall of dictator Gaddafi. Finally, the paper assesses the outcome of the operation both inside and outside Libya and draws lessons and policy recommendations for future military interventions.

The Mali paper analyses the French military intervention in Mali between 2013 and 2014 (Operation Serval) by looking at the situation of the country prior to the intervention as well as the dynamics and effects of the military operation on the stability of the country. It continues with an assessment of the cooperation with local actors and concludes with an analysis of the success of the operation. Operation Serval in Mali provides for a unique case study, as the Operation was carried out upon invitation of the host-nation and as it had a clear counter-terrorism objective. Additionally, the mission had to deviate from its initial planning of aerial bombardment and special forces and later included a more traditional ‘boots on the ground’ approach from the French army. The paper concludes by assessing the military outcome of the operation as well as its ‘civilian’ aspects.