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Research Paper

Terrorist Threat Assessment 2019- 2021

You can read the Executive Summary of the Terrorist Threat Assessment here.

The ICCT Threat Assessment provides a data-driven overview about the state of the terrorist threat in the thirty-one countries that are members of the Madrid Group. We present data about the numbers, geographical distribution, and modus operandi of terrorist attacks, about returning foreign terrorist fighters and about arrests related to terrorism, we identify the most relevant trends and patterns in these areas and give our estimates about what we can read into them. Overall, the impression one could take away from the data is that terrorism in these countries has been experiencing a status quo. The various ideologies are sticking to a particular weapon type, the numbers of victims per attack have remained low throughout the period we examined, and the threats from terrorists of different ideological stripes remain geographically confined. Against this background, it would be prudent to be on the lookout for events or developments that might change that.